(MintPress) — It’s Election Day in America, and across the nation, patriots of all walks of life are getting up and heading to the polls to democratically participate in the governance and future of this country (while apathetics hide under their bed to wait things out, bottle of booze in hand). In the world’s oldest demonstration of peaceful transfer of power, candidates of all types will learn today if they have received the most important jobs in the land, or if all of their efforts amounted to nothing.
But, for some, today promises to be the opening salvo in prolonged legal battles, countless recounts, and political maneuvering aimed toward reversing fate. Throughout the country, head scratchers are forming in several key congressional races, offering to extend Election Day by weeks or even months, and introducing ambiguity and confusion into this highly stratified event.
What to expect and what will be the ramifications?
Most experts expect the Republicans to retain the House and the Democrats to retain the Senate, but by smaller margins. Most also expect the presidency to stay in Democratic hands. Most also predict that the number of lawsuits arising from this election season to be a record.
The reality of a prolonged political struggle can be bitter and harsh. As this electoral cycle has stratified the differences between Republicans and Democrats, progressives and conservatives, other realities have been exposed, such as the role of money in elections and the presence of third-party agents, such as corporations and unions in the system. Questions such as whether requiring a person to show their identification before voting violates their constitutional right and if boards of elections have the right to maintain their rolls without outside approval have been asked. Finally, concepts like voter fraud and voter suppression have been weighted.
Over the next four years, tough questions will be asked and hard decisions will be reached. But, the beauty of the American electoral system is that there will always be another election — another chance to make things right, another chance to participate and clear the slate.
Having said that, in this election, certain eventualities may have certain unexpected effects:
The president winning the electoral vote, but not the popular vote: In the 2000 election, it was revealed that the Republicans had strategies in place in the expected eventuality that Al Gore won the electoral vote, but not the popular vote. It was revealed that the Republicans, if they could not win the office by legal actions, intended to delegitimize the Democratic win by claiming that the majority of the people voted against the president. This would justify the Republican Congress’ actions in opposition to the president.
That didn’t happen then, but it would happen now. Such a situation would justify the Republicans’ congressional opposition to the president and ensure another term of legislative blockage.
As a positive, Republicans would finally entertain talks about Electoral College Reform. In the past, the Republicans have opposed any changes to the electoral system, since it favored them. This situation, however, may change their mind.
Contested races prevent a majority from being seated in the House or the Senate: In the eventuality that a large number of incumbents are defeated, and a healthy number of these cases are contested, and a clear majority is not seated in the House or Senate, chaos will ensue.
Now, before you freak out, this has never happened before. But it is possible. In regards to the House, the new speaker would be chosen at-large from the entire Congress. Committees would be evenly apportioned and chairmanships would be shared until a time when a majority is determined. In the Senate, the vice president would assume presidency of the Senate, as normal, and committees and chairmanships would be shared. The vice president would settle all ties.
There’s a tie in the electoral vote for president: This is an interesting one If, after the Electoral College presents their votes to the Assembled Congress, there is a tie in the votes between the two leading candidates, the separate houses of Congress select the winning candidates, with the House choosing the president and the Senate choosing the vice president. Each state would get one vote, so all the representatives for one state must vote as one unit within their house.
So, under this situation, the newly-elected House — which is expected to be Republican — would choose Mitt Romney as president. But, the newly-elected Senate — which is expected to be Democrat — would choose Joe Biden as vice president.
My representative/senator will not be named before the Opening of Congress: This happened to Al Franken. In a highly contested race against incumbent Norm Coleman in 2008 — in which Franken won by only 312 votes — repeated appeals and requests to recount postponed Franken’s swearing-in until July 7, 2009. As states elect their senators and representatives, a Congress member cannot assume office until their states authorizes it. There’s not much that can be done to alleviate this, except maybe hiding underneath the bed with a bottle and waiting it out.
The heavily contested races
Colorado:
House 6th District: Incumbent Mike Coffman (R) vs. Joe Miklosi (D)
Redistricting has changed the voting composition of the district, making previous sureshot Coffman vulnerable. Independent polling is even.
Connecticut:
House 5th District: Andrew Roraback (R) vs. Elizabeth Esty (D)
The Republicans are making a run to break into the Democrat’s solid hold of Connecticut’s House seats. Taking on the seat vacated by Christopher Murphy is their best shot, but Elizabeth Esty will not make it easy on them.
Florida:
House 18th District: Allen West (R) vs. Patrick Murphy (D)
Redistricting gives the Republicans a 2 percent majority among likely voters here, but West’s controversial nature and the swing for Obama throughout Florida made this almost sure thing nothing of the sort. Polling shows West maintaining his inate 2 percent lead.
House 22nd District: Adam Hasner (R) vs. Lois Frankel (D)
When redistricting made this district more Democratic, incumbent Allen West choose to campaign in the 18th. This makes this race a toss-up amongst local politics veterans who are both new to national politics.
House 26th District: Incumbent David Rivera (R) vs. Joe Garcia (D)
Controversy about campaign funds made freshman incumbent Rivera a massive target. This is a rematch of the 2010 election, and polling shows a statistical tie.
Georgia:
House 12th District: Incumbent John Barrow (D) vs. Lee Anderson (R)
The last surviving Southern Blue Dog Democrat, Barrow is facing sharp opposition since his district was redrawn to make it more conservative. Despite distancing himself from the president, Barrow still face an uphill climb.
Illinois:
House 8th District: Incumbent Joe Walsh (R) vs. Tammy Duckworth (D)
In this highly-funded race, both candidates have been overtly verbal in the national media. In this newly-drawn district, that Walsh won with tea party backing in 2010, Duckworth is poised to upset.
House 10th District: Bob Dold (R) vs. Brad Schneider (D)
In this northern Chicago suburb district, moderate Republicans reign. But, in light of the wave of conservatism on the national stage, the Democratic candidate seemed to be holding all the cards here.
House 11th District: Incumbent Judy Biggert (R) vs. Bill Foster (D)
Current and former Congress members are going head-to-head for this newly-formed district. Since the two served in overlapping terms in the House, key legislation votes can be compared head-to-head, such as votes for the DREAM Act.
House 12th District: Incumbent Jason Plummer (R) vs. Bill Enyart (D)
When the Democratic front runner dropped out of the race due to medical concerns, the race became wide open. Polls vary greatly from each other, and the outcome is anyone’s guess.
House 17th District: Incumbent Bobby Schilling (R) vs. Cheri Bustos (D)
In an heavily-funded race, Schilling is desperately trying to defend a seat that was in Democratic hands since 1983 before Schilling’s tea party-backed win in 2010. Polling is dead even.
Iowa:
House 2nd District: Incumbent Dave Loebsack (D) vs. John Archer (R)
Loebsack’s very weak campaigning and the Republican National Convention’s targeting of this House seat as a possible pick-up makes many on Loebsack’s staff sweat.
House 3rd District: Leonard Boswell (D) vs. Tom Latham (R)
In a new district with equal numbers of Republicans, Democrats and Independents, these two veteran Congressmen might as well flip a coin No one can predict how this will go.
House 4th District: Incumbent Steve King (R) vs. Christie Vilsack (D)
While King still has the lead in national polling, the race is still considered competitive for this newly-drawn district King’s controversial stance may bite him in the end.
Kentucky:
House 6th District: Incumbent Ben Chandler (D) vs. Andy Barr (R)
Chandler’s support of cap and trade and lack of support for coal is hitting him hard in this coal-rich district, which he nearly won (by about 700 votes) in 2010.
Massachusetts:
Senate: Incumbent Scott Brown (R) vs. Elizabeth Warren (D)
In a race that is neck-to-neck, the incumbent is desperate to claim his first full term after the special election to replace the late Sen. Kennedy’s seat However, his campaign against the creator of the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has turned out to be a dead heat.
House 6th District: Incumbent John Tierney (D) vs. Richard Tisei (R)
Tierney’s wife’s role in her brother’s illegal gambling operation and her subsequent prison sentencing complicated things greatly. However, the race is still tight.
Michigan:
House 1st District: Incumbent Dan Benishek (R) vs. Gary McDowell (D)
After redistricting, this region is slightly more Republican, but they still voted for Barack Obama in 2008. This is expected to be a tough fight.
Minnesota:
House 6th District: Incumbent Michele Bachmann (R) vs. Jim Graves (D)
The always interesting tea party darling and former Presidential candidate is facing very stiff competition from Jim Graves, whose personal contributions to his campaign is matching Bachmann’s fundraising at nearly a 1 to 1 ratio.
House 8th District: Incumbent Chip Cravaak (R) vs. Rick Nolan (D)
The tea party swiped the seat two years ago from the longest serving representative in the state. Now, the Democrats want it back. This race promised to be competitive.
Missouri:
Senate: Incumbent Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Todd Akin (R)
What was supposed to be sure-fire pick-up for the Republicans became a fiasco after Akin’s controversial rape comments. Now, it’s anyone’s guess who will win.
Montana:
Senate: Incumbent Jon Tester (D) vs. Denny Rehberg (R)
In 2006, Tester won by only 3,500 votes. Since then, he has been openly drooled over by the Republicans. Polling is currently neck-to-neck.
Nevada:
Senate: Dean Heller (R) vs. Shelly Berkley (D)
This race has been tallied for the most brutal and negative in the country. Heller maintains a slight lead, but it can be overcome with a suspected Latino swing.
House 4th District: Danny Tarkanian (R) vs. Steven Horsford (D)
Despite being expected to deliver a strong win for President Obama, things are still neck and neck for this open Congressional seat. Tarkanian has the lead, but it is in the margin of error.
New Hampshire:
House 1st District: Incumbent Frank Guinta (R) vs. Carol Shea-Porter (D)
In a rematch of the 2010 election, Shea-Porter is attempting to win back her seat. Polling shows a dead heat.
House 2nd District: Incumbent Charles Bass (R) vs. Ann McLane Kuster (D)
In a rematch from the 2010 elections, Bass took back the seat he represented for 12 years from Kuster, who took it in 2006. In this third match of what is building to be a series, the polling remains tight.
New York:
House District 11: Incumbent Michael G. Grimm (R) vs. Mark Murphy (D)
Redistricting made this district more conservative, but a fundraising controversy has blackened the eyes of the Republican candidate.
House District 24 Incumbent Anne Marie Buerkle (R) vs. Dan Maffei (D)
Of all the races being contested today, this is the one most likely to be settled in a courtroom. Tea party candidate Buerkle squeezed out a win in 2010 when recounting swung the election that was already called for Maffei. Two years later, the rematch appears to be more cantankerous and even tighter by poll numbers, despite the third party money flooding in.
North Carolina:
House 7th District: Incumbent Mike McIntyre (D) vs. David Rouzer (R)
Despite redistricting that made the district Republican-friendly, McIntyre is staying in the race by appealing to Independents. This is a close race, despite the influx of third-party cash.
House 8th District: Incumbent Larry Kissell (D) vs. Richard Hudson (R)
With his base redistricted out, Kissell is a dead man walking. The Republicans are already counting this seat in their tally. But, with Democrats desperate for seats, no fight is truly over.
Ohio:
Senate: Incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Josh Mandel (R)
In one of the most costliest battles this year, the Republicans — via the state’s current treasurer — is attempting to dislodge one of the Democratic Senate’s loudest voices. Polling is tight.
House 6th District: Incumbent Bill Johnson (R) vs. Charlie Wilson (D)
In this nationally financed race, Wilson is attempting to avenge his 2010 loss to Johnson. Polling are close.
House 16th District: Incumbent Jim Renacci (R) vs. Betty Sutton (D)
Due to redistricting, two active Congress members are pitted head-to-head. No one can predict how this will fall.
Pennsylvania:
House 12th District: Incumbent Mark Critz (D) vs. Keith Rothfus (R)
Redistricting is a concern here, as the Republican makes a run for this seat — which they only lost by two points in 2010.
Rhode Island:
House 1st District: Incumbent David Cicilline (D) vs. Brendan Doherty (R)
No independent polls have been conducted here since February So, this race is a complete mystery.
Texas:
House 23rd District: Francisco “Quico” Canseco (R) vs. Pete Gallego (D)
Tea partier Canseco’s illegal immigration stance has made him a target to the Democratic challenger in this rare Latino vs. Latino race.
Utah:
House 4th District: Incumbent Jim Matheson (D) vs. Mia Love (R)
The 4th District is arguably the most Republican district in America, and incumbent Matheson is facing the mayor of Saratoga Springs, Mia Love, who seeks the distinction of the first Republican African-American woman elected to the House.
Washington:
House 1st District: John Koster (R) vs. Suzan DelBene (D)
Technically, this is a special election to fill the seat vacated in order for the incumbent to run for governor. While the incumbent was a Democrat, this district is pretty much all over the political spectrum. This race is a toss-up.