News out of Africa that makes it into the Western press is often not good. Whether it is the interminable resource wars in Central Africa, communal unrest in East Africa, sectarian strife in Western Africa or the economic unrest in Southern Africa, the narrative presented to audiences in the West is that of a continent perpetually doomed by war, disease, poverty, corruption and death.
Indeed, while the media often overplays Africa’s problems, international statistics collected by the United Nations Development Program nonetheless consistently indicate that Sub-Saharan Africa is, along with war-torn Central Asia, one of the most miserable places on Earth to be a human being. By almost any measure that counts, Africa’s peoples are poorer, less educated, less healthy, more vulnerable to violence and live shorter lives than people in the developed West or East Asia.
Why then, one might ask, are Western multinationals, international investment funds, Chinese resources companies and Indian diplomats increasingly flocking to the continent? It turns out that behind the usual media doom and gloom a slow revolution is taking place in many African states that is challenging long-held assumptions about the continent. Moreover, geopolitical forces and global economic trends are for the first time combining in a way that is not only propelling the world to Africa’s doorstep, but doing so on Africa’s terms.
To understand why, look first at the macro level. By 2050, the world’s population will have grown by approximately 2 billion more people, putting human numbers in excess of 9 billion, possibly many more. At the same time, world resource consumption will grow prodigiously in order to clothe, feed, house and keep in comfort humanity’s additional numbers. African natural resources, however, remain mostly underdeveloped despite being colonized by Western economies for over a century.
Why does everyone want Africa now?
This is due to a variety of factors, such as limited global demand, ample supply elsewhere, corruption, political instability and a crippling lack of infrastructure needed to get Africa’s resources to market. Now, however, each of these factors no longer applies in quite so much force as before. Despite what one hears in the press, political stability and violence has decreased from their post-independence highs, and many of Africa’s states are now functioning democracies, albeit highly imperfect and fragile ones. Second, much of Africa has junked misguided development programs that choked off trade abroad and entrepreneurialism at home – bloated, highly corrupt government bureaucracies are less of a problem in many states than they were several decades ago.
Third, the revolutionary parties that led African states to independence in most countries have become spent forces that long ago squandered any political legitimacy they might have once had. Instead of anti-colonial ideology, Africa’s people, many of them voters, want governments that actually produce stability and growth, and not governments that blame the lack of both on Western imperialism. Thus, a new, favorable attitude has grown vis-à-vis foreign investment and domestic enterprise that makes many African countries much more desirable places to do business.
Fourth, the increased competition between all those foreigners scrambling for African opportunities has shifted power away from foreign firms and governments and into the hands of African governments and businesses. Chinese firms, for instance, are more than willing to do whatever it takes to win lucrative resource development contracts – forcing Western competitors to up their game as well. Long gone are the days when a Western multinational, like BP, could dictate terms to an African state and expect it to be happy with whatever economic crumbs was given to it. Likewise, the availability of Chinese finance has become a major force in African development projects – making Africa much less dependent on the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund than in the past. This, in turn, is helping to get needed infrastructure projects built that will, Chinese investors hope, allow African resources to flow to Chinese factories and cities.
Perhaps most important, Africa’s relations with the outside world has become far more sophisticated. Unlike the early post-colonial years or the dark days of the Cold War, Africa’s governments are no longer dependent on just one external power for security and investment. Today, African governments can pick and choose between foreign suitors. Or, instead of choosing one foreign partner, they can pick several and so lessen their dependence on any one foreign firm or government. Though still vastly less powerful than their non-African suitors, African governments and businesses are finding that, structurally, their position has shifted to one much more advantageous than in the past.
The rise of Africa
So, in terms of the big picture, Africa is well placed to ride the coming resource boom. However, at the micro level of African consumers and firms there is also good news. Africa collectively has nearly a billion people – putting them on par with India and China in terms of their long-term market potential. While many remain desperately poor and unable to participate fully in Africa’s growing consumer markets, many are richer than they used to be and are aspiring to consume and spend like rising working and middle classes elsewhere.
Africa, for instance, is one of the world’s biggest and most fiercely competitive mobile phone markets, and collectively Africa now has more mobile subscriptions than either the United States or the European Union. This ties African producers and consumers into global markets by allowing producers to market their wares abroad or check on commodity prices on the global commodity exchanges. New businesses, such as phone renting, are another profitable spinoff for village entrepreneurs eager to benefit from the new technology.
Other consumer markets, too, are developing apace. Food and beverage firms, both domestic and foreign, are beginning to use Africa’s new communications technology and improving infrastructure to both introduce themselves to consumers and bring their products to market. Companies like Unilever are learning to tailor their products – from shampoos to detergents – to the needs of African consumers. Meanwhile, African companies, like Nigeria’s “Nollywood” film producers, are better positioned to provide everything African consumers may desire.
Furthermore, Africa’s people are young and their numbers are growing. Whereas the developed world and even China are aging fast, Africa’s vast numbers of youth stand ready to enter their most productive years as both consumers and workers. This means that Africa will become not just an attractive place to sell products, but also make them as the relative cost of labor goes up elsewhere due to aging workforces. If Africa can fix its infrastructure problems, invest in education and reduce further the political conflict that mars much of the continent, its central location and young, cheap workforce could one day transform Africa into more than just a simple producer of primary products.
So, Africa, after many years, is waking up to the possibilities of market-led development. Foreign capital is flowing in. Domestic capital is beginning to stick around. Firms are being built and commercial relationships between Africa and the rest of the world are being forged. Will this mean an immediate end to the common media narrative that paints Africa as a desperate, terrible place? No, but it is a good start and one worth keeping an eye on.